Below you will find some implications, early indicators, and possible strategic options for each of the Sacramento Region stories.

Go to: Rios de Oro | Silver Lining | New Tech Mirage | Paradise Lost

What does RIOS DE ORO mean?

- We need to make all boats rise

- We must create the infrastructure needed to handle all this growth

- How can we balance the “natural conflicts” within the region?

- How can we bring together diverse perspectives into a shared vision for regional approach?

- How can we prevent quality of life from attracting so much growth that it imperils quality of life?

- How can we get beyond the “NIMBY mentality”?

- Reward local politicians for thinking and acting regionally

- How can we balance public vs. private interests appropriately?

- We need to achieve public goals with a government that is efficient and effective and does not get too big

- We need to improve schools

- How can we increase civic involvement and participation?

- How can we keep a shared vision for the future alive over time?

Possible Early Indicators of RIOS DE ORO

- Increasing level of consensus and coordination among cities and counties on regional planning issues

- Declining number of lawsuits over land use issues

- Increasing regional effort to address housing needs

- For the first time, agency coordination on flood control and riverfront development

- California is the first state to take steps against greenhouse effect

- Bay Area smog check legislation

- Average commute times drop

- Increasing number of students going into high-level technical education

- Greater subsidies for affordable housing

- “Location sensitive” loan criteria adopted by financial institutions

- Fewer homeless people asking for emergency shelter

- New-wealth/Dot-com billionaire gives $5M to support election of regionally-oriented candidates

- Increasing out-of-state migration into the region

- School test scores are at an all-time high

Strategic Options for RIOS DE ORO

- Partnership of regional media (newspaper and television) for a year-long dialogue on the future of the region

- Major initiative to create a superb educational system, not only K-12, but also universities and community colleges; this would ensure that new jobs would be filled by local people

- Create new educational metrics: concrete, real-world measures of success

- New grassroots movement, “One Thousand Friends of the Sacramento Region” (as in Portland)

- Market the concept of regionalism to the public

- Financial incentives for regional collaboration

- Replace six counties with one single county—what would it be named? (with representative districts, not at-large, and change financing mechanisms to make them accountable)

- Attract more funding resources—private and public—to address regional issues

- Change current funding mechanisms to increase flexibility of distribution

- Change regional governance to increase efficiency and accountability and reduce complexity, costs, and overlap

- Take full ownership of the region’s natural resources

- Understand how the decisions made today will shape the area in 2025

- Make a connection between the choices of the individual and the future of the region

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What does SILVER LINING mean?

- Having seen what cam happen when people come together after a disaster, is it possible to reach the same results without having to go through the cataclysmic event?

Possible Early Indicators of SILVER LINING

- Mini-disaster and response (e.g., Yolo County forest fire or floods of 1997)

- Citizen preparedness (e.g., the black-out of 2001)

- Stronger sense of long range land use and transportation issues

- Weather getting weirder, more extremes

- Sense of volunteerism, civic participation

- Greater regional collaboration

Strategic Options for SILVER LINING

If a good number of these early indicators become apparent, then the Sacramento Region would be wise to implement at least some of the following strategic options:

- Create pool of money to support regional cooperation and regional governance

- Reduce reliance on government structures by creating self-reliant community/neighborhood training structures that work together

- Create infrastructure to coordinate existing groups (i.e., faith-based, public, private, to provide training services, viz. CalWorks)

- Support the cross cultural respect and understanding efforts of the Capital Unity Council

- Film/TV/media event promoting “What If?” (e.g., The Day After, Deep Impact, Independence Day, that dramatizes long-term consequences in the short term)

- Develop a sense of regional citizenship

- Use SACOG’s Blueprint Project and regional coordination effort to help shape the land use and transportation plan for the region

- Understand how the decisions made today will shape the area in 2025

- Make a connection between the choices of the individual and the future of the region

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What does NEW TECH MIRAGE mean?

- A narrow focus on economic development is not sustainable

- Lack of cooperation exacerbates negative impacts of external forces

- The benefits of boom times should be shared to improve the region

- Short term profits for some can leave others with big issues to resolve

- The health and wealth of the region depends on all levels of society doing better

Possible Early Indicators of NEW TECH MIRAGE

- Dot-com collapse

- Narrow scope of businesses development

- Contentious government relations

- Many new jobs filled by out-of-region in-migrants

- Many new jobs are entry level

- Attempts at regional collaboration failing, creating winners and losers

- Government concessions/competition for new jobs (high price per new job)

- Housing shortage: nothing for under $200K

- Local governments drop out of SACOG, ending a regional strategy

- Regional plan for transportation falls apart

- Failure to pass bond issues creates critical infrastructure crisis

- Communities celebrate their victories over each other

- Businesses leave because workers can’t find houses and don’t want to commute

Strategic Options to avoid NEW TECH MIRAGE

If a significant number of these early indicators show up in the news, then the Sacramento Region would be wise to implement at least some of the following strategic options, as painful as some of them might be. Forestalling cuts in the face of these early indicators will just lead to cost overruns and possible bankruptcy. Hence the special importance of early indicators for this scenario.

- Develop a plan for on-going diversification of regional economy (to prevent risk of too large a bet on one sector), while ensuring that agriculture is a viable part of the plan

- Create regional agreement on business location incentives to minimize local competition for jobs (shared parameters/criteria)

- Create a “community service academy” to train regional leaders with a broader perspective (detailed professional training for elected officials)

- Re-invest in existing areas to minimize barbell effect and save scarce tax dollars

- Insist on technical literacy for everyone

- Provide good schools, safe streets, and a high quality of life in every neighborhood

- Create educational and training programs to provide a workforce in anticipation of future economic changes, retain the assets you have, and stay flexible to future needs

- Make sure that new business facilities are built with re-use in mind to ensure that existing facilities can meet business needs as the economy shifts

- Understand how the decisions made today will shape the area in 2025

- Make a connection between the choices of the individual and the future of the region

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What does PARADISE LOST mean?

- Management by crisis (rather than by long-term plan)

- Declining infrastructure (i.e., transit, parks, etc.)

- Approving development for short-term gain, without attention to long-term effects, can have dire consequences

- More conflict equals more uncertainty, which scares off investment from outside the region and drives existing investment out

- This scenario discourages civic involvement; particular difficulty attracting political officials

- War of all against all to attract business; “chasing smoke stacks”; trend of ever-increasing incentives that are not in the city or county’s long-term interest

- Generally looking out for oneself only, from the neighborhood on up

- Fragmented natural habitat and open space, lost resources

Possible Early Indicators of PARADISE LOST

- Counties withdrawing from SACOG

- Sacramento County found to be out of compliance with state standards for affordable housing

- SAFCA (current cooperative effort on flood control) talks end in gridlock

- Efforts by jurisdictions to create inclusionary housing ordinances are revoked

- More inter-jurisdictional lawsuits

- No jurisdiction can pass bonds for parks, schools, etc.

- Kings miss playoffs two years in a row—interest in multi-county financed sports/entertainment/transportation center wanes

- Federal funds for open space withheld because there is a perception that the county cannot maintain them

- Low national unemployment rate—the regional unemployment rises

- Private colleges choose to locate in region

- California state budget balanced

Strategic Options for PARADISE LOST

If a significant number of these early indicators were to appear, then the following strategic options would be an appropriate response to the increasing likelihood of the Paradise Lost scenario playing out.

- Develop a six-county business development plan, strategy, and standards (to cut down inter-county competition/smokestack chasing)

- Build process for public (neighborhoods and elites) to understand the regional stakes and options (leadership role of media)

- Mobilize private individuals and organizations, NGO leadership, and unconventional alliances (i.e., farmers and environmentalists, land use activists and housing advocates) to participate in regional strategy development

- Mobilize/lobby the state by to reshape institutions with a regional perspective

- Create a coalition to represent the region on state and federal issues

- Build satellite-spokes from central hub (i.e., regional tax for the arts) spent on a central facility and smaller facilities along same theme in each/all jurisdictions

- Understand how the decisions made today will shape the area in 2025

- Make the connection between the choices of the individual and the future of the region

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