| HOW THE SCENARIOS WERE CREATED
18 COUNTIES, 3 REGIONS.
. .12 POSSIBLE FUTURES
Working with a diverse team of local citizens representing
a broad range of constituencies, the Global
Business Network (GBN) and the Great
Valley Center facilitated the development of 12 stories describing
possible futures for the Central Valley of California.
At a first workshop in spring 2002, scenario teams
developed outlines of four very different futures for the three
subregions of the Central Valley: the San Joaquin Valley, the Sacramento
Region, and the North Valley. The team then further developed
four narratives from the outlines. At a second workshop in the fall,
the team reviewed and amended the narratives.
The teams then explored the implications of the
different scenarios—how to avoid the worst possibilities;
how to find the glow of the most promising?
THE SCENARIOS ARE DISCUSSION STARTERS, NOT PREDICTIONS
These scenarios are intended to focus attention on
the economic, social and environmental future of the Central Valley. In discussion groups using the scenarios, the overriding theme is that the region's residents have the power to choose their own future.
While the scenario teams took the trouble to explore
the implications of the scenarios and suggest some recommended actions,
the main objective of this scenario exercise is to stimulate a similar
thought process among a much larger, wider circle of citizens.
For more information on The Valley Futures Project,
please contact the Great Valley Center at (209) 522-5103.
WHAT IS "SCENARIO PLANNING"?
The Valley Futures Project is a local implementation of a discipline known as "Scenario Planning". Scenario Planning is a planning method can be used to make flexible long-term plans.
The classic method involves a group of experts generating simulated futures based on known facts about the future, such as geography or demographics with plausible alternative social, technical, economic and political trends which are key driving forces.
The appeal of scenario planning is that it can include elements that are difficult to formalize, such as subjective interpretations of facts, shifts in values, new regulations or changes in technology.
As applied here, the Great Valley Center held workshops over the course of 2002 with hundreds of Central Valley residents - the real "experts" - including high school students, business people, elected officials, nonprofits, activists and educators. |
